Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Races

 

BC Juvenile Turf Sprint

LBBS Partner: Chris T.

Selections: 2-3-5-9

 

Not the kind of race that will consume much of my bankroll as the Americans appear to be quite underwhelming this year and it’s a guess as to who handles the Del Mar turns as far as the Euros go.  On paper the Euros outclass the field by quite a bit and that’s where I’ll land with my selections in their entirety. Spoiler alert, Ecoro Sieg a likely top choice is a toss for me, for nothing more than I feel the Euros are much classier bunch and I don’t  see him having it his own way on the front. I like the inside at Del Mar and watching (2) Aesterius’ last few races he breaks fine and should be in a perfect stalking position to wear down the early speed.  As always with these sprints is about trip, but this horse rates and grinds, and you should get right around that 9/2 price with several holding similar form.

I’ll play it all Euros and try and get some multis started:

$20 win #2 Aesterius
$2 Tri 2/3,5,9/3,59
$5 pick 3 2/10/1
$1 pick 3 2/10/All

 

BC Juvenile Fillies

LBBS Partner: Bill H.

Selections: 10-5-3-2

 

Tough race pretty much every horse has a shot. Looks to be a fast race 

Going with the 10) Scottish Lassie on top. Lezcano should be able to get position prior to the first turn and sit an outside stalking trip an achieve a first jump move on the speed and play catch me if you can thru the lane. The (5) Quickick with Dylan sitting off the pace could get a rail trip and fool them all at odds flying down the lane late. The (3) Immersive with Manny up trained by Cox  is the horse to beat IMO. Can sit off the pace and fire big. My only concern is the one has run 2 big ones that last two time out but then again Cox trains. More than likely the favorite which is more reason to look for others but can’t leave off the ticket. The (2) Snowyte with Luis up for Gargan. 59 5 Furlong work over the Del Mar surface tells me this one is ready to run her best. I look for Luis to have this one rolling thru the lane 

 

Win wagers on both 5 and 2 at odds 

Big pools will allow for a 4 horse exacta box 2-3-5-10

Trifecta Key- 2-3-5-10/2-3-5-10/All

 

BC Juvenile Fillies Turf

LBBS Partner: Joe T.  

Selections: 6-9-1-2

 

The biggest question in this race is what does the early pace scenario look like? The favorite, Lake Victoria, has plenty of it, especially leaving from the rail position. If she doesn’t get company upfront, she could wire this field quite easily. My hope is that there are some that challenge her on the front end to set it up for some price horses coming off the pace. The (6) Virgin Colada doesn’t quite have the speed figures to win this race, but visually she looks to have a lot of talent and has some athleticism that you need in a big field of turf runners. Its hard to discount the type of meet that Rusty Arnold had at Keeneland. The (9) Kilwin comes in here off of two nice turf wins. He should appreciate the extra distance in here. (2) Nitrogen looks to have tactical speed to handle the distance and the inside post. It’s a fun race with plenty of longshot possibilities OR the favorite will win by open lengths – we’ll hope for the former.

 

$.50 Triple

6,9/1,2,4,6,9,10/All

 

BC Juvenile

LBBS Partner: Joe T.

Selections: 1-10-6-4

 

There will be some serious 2yo talent on display. At one point in their seasons, several of these runners have had some very flashy victories – Ferocious and Jonathan’s Way on debut, Chancer McPatrick from the clouds, and East Avenue in the Futurity at Keeneland. It’s the latter’s race that was most impressive to me. It’s not often that I’ll look to key in on a favorite, especially in the Breeders’ Cup but this one seems to be the real deal. (1) East Avenue is the pick. He may have been aided by the Keeneland surface a bit, but he has looked fantastic since getting to Del Mar. I don’t think the rail will be a problem – his early speed should put him in a great position, especially with Tyler G. aboard. He’ll have to hold off the late challenge from (10) Chancer McPatrick who seems to be the professional type in his three wins thus far. (6) Citizen Bull needs to work out a trip, but Martin Garcia has handled this one fairly well thus far. He’ll be a good price to play in exotics. We have to root for (4) Ferocious for our friends at JR Ranch and Marquee Bloodstock. I’m a little concerned about his pre-race antics at Keeneland in his last race. The atmosphere around him should be buzzing. Hopefully he can keep his cool and put in a good effort.

$10 Double

1 with 2,4,7,9,12

 

BC Juvenile Turf

LBBS Partner: Nik L.

Selections: 12-4-13-11

 

The most useful stats in the race may not be on the form, but rather the history of the race itself. The Euros have taken the race 12 out of the 17 years that it has been run and Aidan O'Brien has won it 7 of the 17 years. 14 of the 17 winners of the race have either been a mid-pack stalker or a deep closer, with the former taking 5 of the last 6 editions of the race. 16 of the 17 winners of the race finished 1st or or 2nd in the final prep before this race. The eventual winner has been 7-1 or under in 10 of the last 11 years. So where does that leave us?

 

The question may be more of the order rather than do I have the right horses in the mix. 

 

O'Brien finished 1-2 in this race last year and I think Appleby could turn the trick this year. Appleby is winning G1 turf routes at a 34% clip and finishing in the money at a 76% clip over the last five years. (12) Aomori City overcame a tough trip 2 back and ended up winning. Was near the front in the last race and was just out finished for a respectable 4th. The fact that Buick stays on with the mount, doesn't go to Al Qudra, and the horse catches a 9 lb break here are positives. Will have to hold off the (4) Al Qudra that I believe will sit back from a bit of a deep stalking/closing spot and make one sustained move and mow down anyone in its way. I struggled with flipping both back and forth as I wish the 4 was drawn a bit more to the outside. Can you sleep on O'Brien here with (13) Henri Matisse with the same owner/trainer pairing that won the 2023 edition with Unquestionable? Moore stays on here and has ridden him to win 2 wins and 1 second in 4 mounts on him. Should be another one coming with one sustained late run and the 4 lb weight break with blinkers off might be a good thing. (11) New Century was off a step slow in the last race and was taken 8 wide and still came back to win by 1 1/2 lengths over the #4 with a 93 Beyer. With Mendelssohn posting a 97 and Modern Games posting a 99 here in the two prior runs at Del Mar, it would be hard to assume that New Century doesn't finish inside the Top 4.

 

Bets:

$10 Win: #12

$.50 Tri Box: 4-11-12-13

$.50 PK 4 (which starts in Race 7, but the sequence ends here)

 3-9-10 with 4-6-12-13 with 5 with 4-11-12-13

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Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Races

 

BC F&M Sprint

LBBS Partner: Rob H.

Selections: 9-4-8-3

 

#9 Ways and Means has been talked about fondly ever since the debut at Saratoga last year. While she did ok chasing Oaks fever throughout the spring, Chad Brown always thought she would do better at the shorter distances. After the failed attempt at the Oaks in May, he hit the reset button and cut her back and shes run three great races since. She draws well and will be able to sit right off the speed to her inside on a track that you generally don’t want to be far back on. #4 Vahva was looking like the possible favorite in this race before throwing in a subpar effort for her standards in the Ballerina last out at Saratoga. Willing to cut her some slack for that effort as she had three strong races over a 3 month span leading into that effort and might have been a bit flat. She has worked great at Keeneland leading up to this race, and would be no surprise. #8 Soul of an Angel is the wild card horse for me. Since being switched over to the Saffie Joseph barn, she has become a new animal. Saffie tried her going longer, but she seems to do her best running at these middle distances as evidenced by her efforts last out at Gulfstream and in the Ruffian at Aqueduct where she upset the field at 24-1 in May. If the track is playing fairly and a pace duel develops, which at least looks possible on paper, do not count out this one flying down the lane at a number. #3 Pleasant has talent, but has been hard to keep on the track as evidenced by the layoff lines. She will need to improve to compete with this bunch, but goes out for Baffert, and has been working well consistently since the return at Los Alamitos in September. Keep off your tickets at your own peril if you go deeper than the top 2 choices here.

 

5$ Exacta Key Box 9//4,8,3-30$

10$ Exacta Box 4,9-20$

 

 

BC Turf Sprint

LBBS Partner: Bill R.

Selections: 6-12-9-2

 

The sprinters on the turf is always an exciting race. This year’s version is living up to another

good one. While Cogburn will be the deserved favorite, my feeling is that he will get beat.

(9) Cogburn is the speed of the speed but I feel he will be pressured by (5) AG Bullet. I feel the

pressure will set up for the closers, which in this case I like as my top selection as (6) Star of

Mystery who had trouble in his last race at Keenland. I also like to be in the mix is (12) Bradsell

for Holly Doyle and trainer Archie Watson. My other horse who should get a piece is

(2) Motorious with a great turf jockey Antonio Fresu.

 

Play is 1.00 Trifecta key 6/2,5,9,12 for 12.00

3.00 exacta box 2,6,9,12 for 36.00

 

BC Distaff

LBBS Partner: Scott M.

Selections: 2-1-6-9

 

For a race that will have a big favorite in (2) Thorpedo Anna, it oddly feels like a tricky race to handicap. Is she regressing (even just slightly) from her big spring/summer campaign? The Cotillion wasn’t a standout victory for her. We’re going to cautiously make her the top pick in here, mainly because there just seems to be a lack of pace in here. The (9) Awesome Result has been prolific early on in her races, but not sure that speed will translate to American speed. The (1) Candied could get a nice trip in here. Her trip in her last at Keeneland wasn’t one that she seems comfortable with. We’re expecting her to sit in 4th or 5th early and make a late move. The (6) Raging Sea is probably the biggest threat to beat Anna in here but she’s coming back kinda quickly after a winning, but unimpressive, win in the Beldame last out.  She’ll be coming late, but not sure she’ll catch the leaders.

 

$5 Triple – 1,2/1,2/3,5,6,9,10

 

BC Turf

LBBS Partner: Jim O.

Selections: 2-11-4-6

 

It’s hard to get past the international invaders in here. It doesn’t seem as though the American contingent has enough firepower. We’ll focus in on a couple of Euros as our top selections. The (2) Emily Upjohn could get a nice trip in here under Frankie Dettori. On paper, there’s a decent amount of early pace, and while this one has good tactical speed, I expect Dettori to get her settled midpack to make one move late. (11) Rebel’s Romance is the one to beat. She may come up just a bit short this year. (4) Luxembourg comes in fresh off a couple of so-so starts. Ryan Moore should get the most out of her at this 1 ½ mile distance.

 

$50 Win on Emily Upjohn

 

 

BC Classic

LBBS Partner: Rob V.

Selections: 12-1-7-11

 

While it may lack some star-power, the Classic is certainly a fun one to try to figure out. One thing is for certain – we are against City of Troy in here. We’ll lean on the (12) Arthur’s Ride, who comes into this with a bit of a freshening. He will head right to the lead and hopefully not look back at a nice price. He’ll have to hold off some late charging horses from the back. The (1) Forever Young had a nice prep in Japan before shipping to Cali. He’s clearly very talented, but the rail draw might be too tough to navigate. (7) Ushba Tesoro and (11) Sierra Leone will be coming late and could sweeten up the exotics underneath. But the horse we may be rooting for as fans of racing is (14) Next. He’s something special at the marathon distances but it would be a lot of fun to see him run well in here.

 

$1 Triple

1,12/1,7,9,11,12,14/1,7,9,11,12,14

 

BC F&M Turf

LBBS Partner: Mike R.

Selections: 2-12-4-3

 

On paper this is a paceless turf race. The (2) Full Count Felicia is going to take them as far as they can in here, and may be unopposed throughout. (12) Soprano is my longshot play. She has good tactical speed and may be forced to show some of it from her outside post. She should stalk the leader(s) early on. (4) War Like Goddess is the most talented horse in the race. She’ll be closing late, along with the (3) Cinderella’s Dream and (7) Content. It’s a wide open race because of the pace scenario, and could create some nice exotics payouts.

 

$4 Exacta

2,12/1,2,3,4,7,8,12

 

BC Sprint

LBBS Partner: John S.

Selections: 4-3-2-10

 

Some pretty famous horses have won this event like Mitole 2019, Run Happy 2015, Speigtstown 2004, Kona Gold 2000, Artax 1999, Gulch 1988, and in the first ever BC Sprint in 1984 it was Eillo with jock Craig Perret up. Eleven are entered with three of them from overseas. There is a lot of early speed in here as is usual for this race. So, lets try and find a horse that will sit just behind the pace setters and maybe can take advantage of a super speed duel up front. This is a very talented bunch and you can just about make a case for most of them as your choice but let us narrow that down. #4 NAKATOMI is my top pick because he should be sitting behind the pace setters who hopefully are 21.5 and 43.8 for the first two calls. Gaffallone should be able to have the rail position going into the turn saving some ground and then when they turn for home he can get NAKATOMI through for his one run down the stretch. It looked like he needed that last race coming off the layoff so I expect a big move forward today. If the final time of the race is around 1:08:35 then the win ticket is in trouble. But, if the final time is more like 1:09:35 then we might just cash a descent win ticket. #3 FEDERAL JUDGE is a threat for the top spot and he gets new rider Irad Ortiz as Pratt chooses to stay on the #10 in here. This 4YO son of Army Mule is still improving and has the last race best Beyer of 106. Any improvement on that fig and you can most likely go to the window and cash. But lets just say he gets in that super fast speed duel I have spoken about, then he may just be vulnerable in late stretch. #2 GUNPILOT is the other closer in here so lets just stay with my pace scenario and use this son of Gun Runner to pick up a piece of the pie late near the wire. The M/L is 20-1 and show bets on this day sometimes pay handsomely. Tartaglia will kill me for suggesting a show bet!!!  This is a live longshot. #10 MULLIKIN is another 4YO on the improve and is a major player in here with Pratt choosing this mount over Federal Judge. I think leaving this nice animal out of any superfecta bets is silly. 

 

WIN bet # 4 NAKATOMI

Tri Box 2-3-4-10

Super Box 2-3-4-8-10

 

 

BC Mile

LBBS Partner: Lee S.

Selections: 1-7-8-6

 

This may be the best betting race of the weekend. It’s certainly one of the most competitive. There are some really talented horses, both American and Internationally. The Euro’s may just be too tough to beat. We’ll make our top selection the (1) Ramatuelle. She’s lost twice to Porta Fortuna but we think she can turn the table with a nice, ground-saving trip on the rail. We’re not too concerned with post draw, it may actually help her. (7) Porta Fortuna is another filly going against the boys. She’s the most talented runner in here, but we’re going to try to beat her today. It’s hard not to look past the big odds on the (8) More Than Looks, who has just as much talent as the 6-1 Carl Spackler. He’ll be coming late at a big price. (6) Notable Speech should like the firmer ground after a disappointing effort on soft going last time out. What a race!

 

$1 Triple

1/ 2,3,4,6,7,8,9,12/2,3,4,6,7,8,9,12

 

 

BC Dirt Mile

LBBS Partner: Mike F.

Selections: 3-9-8-6

 

With the absence of Cody’s wish from this Breeders Cup, it leaves us with a pretty wide open field of 14. The well-deserved morning line favorite (#9) DOMESTIC PRODUCT will be the horse to beat this year. Domestic product won the Grade 3 Dwyer by 7 lengths going a mile but he won that race like he should have as his rivals that day were nothing special. Domestic Product won the Grade 1 H ALLEN JERKENS by a neck at 7f  last out. That last race was just visually impressive and it came back with a strong 106 Beyer. I’m going to try to beat DP on Saturday with (#3) FULL SERRANO(ARG).FS will be making his third start in the US for trainer John Sadler. FS's first race for Sadler he was able to make the lead and battle while setting a fast pace at a mile to win by 3 lengths. 2nd last out in the G1 Pacific Classic FS was able to set the pace and settle before getting tired but only finished 2nd by ½ a length going 1 ¼. Full Serano will improve in his third start in the US getting back to the mile and should be able to fight off rivals on the front end while controlling the speed at the same time. (#8) Post Time is Another horse With a lot of talent. I give credit to trainer Brittany Russell for entering this horse in a 100k stakes race to boost his confidence at their home track where he won by 12 lengths before the BIG race. Jockey Shelton Russell is going to have to be aggressive in this spot but should be able to get a decent pace to run at.

 

WAGERS

$1 TRIFECTA BOX 3-6-8-9 

$5  WIN/PLACE/SHOW 3

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup Races

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